"Wearable devices will continue to experience cold in 2015." Recently, UnionSquare Venture co-founder Fred Wilson made predictions about the future of the wearables industry as he predicted the direction of technology in 2015.
Perhaps many people still don't know exactly where Fred Wilson is. Here, I will briefly introduce it to Fred Wilson, the top VC in the United States; and because of its excellent investment record, it is recognized as one of the most influential people in the New York investment community. He is not optimistic about the development of the wearable device industry in 2015. He believes that Apple Watch will not become Apple's flagship product like iPod, iPhone and iPad. Not every user wants to wear a computer on his wrist. There will be many in 2015. Capital and startups continue to experiment with the wearable field, but the results are still beyond their means.
This prediction is correct and correct. It is not right or wrong. The reason is simple. If you understand it from the perspective of human wearables, then Fred Wilson's predictions make sense. Because for human body wearable devices, it is still difficult to produce some so-called just-needed products, whether foreign or domestic.
Let's take the example of the sports tracking and monitoring products that everyone is more inclined to get involved in today, and see what is going on. At first glance, this type of product seems to have a little bit of needed ingredients, but after careful analysis, you will find that the user stickiness of such products is not high. From a technical point of view, the realization of the amount of motion monitoring is nothing more than a sensor algorithm, the accelerometer & gyroscope algorithm technology is routinely used to make corrections and draw conclusions. Well, the problem is coming.
First of all, we look at the level of life behavior. For Americans, because their lifestyles and habits are more willing to follow the rules, then you can do some monitoring behavior requirements for users and get relatively accurate data; but for Chinese, very few Some users will be willing to follow the requirements of the bracelet or watch in order to get a so-called "accurate" amount of exercise data. Therefore, whether it is the United States or China, the data available is relative, because no one's life behavior will be completely completed according to the requirements of the monitoring equipment.
Second, we look at the level of monitoring technology. The monitoring of the amount of exercise itself is achieved by means of sensor data acquisition and then using an algorithm. Then the accuracy of the result is related to the accuracy of the acquisition of the sensor itself; on the other hand, it is related to the interference of the algorithm, which means that it is difficult for us to make an accurate judgment on each behavior of the user. The simplest example is taking a bath. Since our hands are moving and swaying rapidly, the bracelet worn on the hand will “feel†this movement, which is not the original intention. Obviously, there is no meaning and value of a true reference.
Again, we look at the level of user needs. Some people think that the sport tracking and monitoring products are just a need, but in my opinion, this is more of a "feeling." The reason is very simple. According to different sports people, it is really meaningless to wear this thing for people who love sports. Because you remind and don't remind, statistics and statistics do not have a period of exercise every day; For those who don't love sports, sports is a three-minute heat for them. Maybe it may be a little bit interesting in the first few days, but after reminding for a few days, regardless of the watch or the ring estimate. To be taken directly. Of course, some developers have introduced social features to make their sports monitoring data show up in order to improve the user's product stickiness. But this is like the various popular games. When the honeymoon is fresh, most of them will be thrown into the cold.
Therefore, whether it is from the current entire industry chain, from the technical level, or user behavior habits, human wearable devices have a long way to go. The wearable device defined by this is basically in line with Fred Wilson's prediction that the wearable industry will continue to be cold in 2015.
But is our smart wear really such a concept category? The answer is obviously not. Smart wear, it is based on a concept of the entire industry level of the Internet of Things. And that's why I don't agree with Fred Wilson's prediction that wearables will continue to experience cold in 2015.
Today, whether it is foreign or domestic, not in the industry or outside the industry, there is a certain degree of unilaterality and limitations in the understanding of the smart wear industry. Because most people understand the smart wear only in the human body wearable device, even on the body surface wearable device. For wearable devices outside the body, most of the current understanding is limited to that table and that ring. And this understanding of the smart wear industry will inevitably lead to corresponding limitations.
Smart wear can be said to be an indispensable core of the entire IoT phase, including the current hot industry 4.0 and China Manufacturing 2025, which are all inseparable from wearable devices. If the narrow point is defined, the so-called smart wear can be intuitively understood as the sensor wear. However, some practitioners are habitually focusing on people, so people are mistaken for smart wear to be worn. In fact, human wearable devices account for a small proportion of the entire smart wear industry.
For example, in addition to the human body wearable home smart wear, which is referred to as smart home; industrial wearable, agricultural wearable, environmental wearable, forestry wearable, medical wearable, pet wearable, car wearable, fashion can Wearable, entertaining wearable, military wearable, educational wearable, adult wearable, etc. These markets are no smaller than the market for human wearable devices, and the technical difficulty is relatively small, and the industrial chain must be mature.
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