Drug consumption will reach 1.2 trillion US dollars in 2016 The global pharmaceutical market will rebound

After the global pharmaceutical market has experienced slow growth for several years, it is expected that recovery will rebound. Recently, the reporter learned from the IMS Health and Medical Information Institute (hereinafter referred to as the “IMS Institute”) that the growth rate of the global pharmaceutical market will increase from 3% to 4%, which is expected in 2012, to 5% to 7% in 2016. Global pharmaceuticals in 2016 Consumer spending is expected to reach 1.2 trillion US dollars. However, during the rebound of recovery, the mature markets and emerging markets are uneven, the growth of brand drugs will slow down, and small molecule generic drugs and biopharmaceuticals will usher in a great space for development.

Growth rate will reach 3% to 6%

Data show that in 2011, the annual global drug consumption expenditure was 965 billion US dollars. The latest research report released by the IMS Institute “Global Drug Use - 2016 Outlook” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) points out that the global annual drug consumption expenditure in 2016 will be driven by the increase in sales volume in the emerging pharmaceutical market and the increase in drug consumption in developed countries. Increased to 1.2 trillion US dollars, the compound annual growth rate of 3% to 6%.

In addition, with the arrival of the “bombshell” grade patent expiration period in 2012 and the increasing cost-control behavior of payment parties, the growth rate of consumer spending on branded drugs will be constrained, and it is expected that the growth rate will decline by 2016. To 0 to 3%. The mature market will usher in the lowest growth rate of drug consumption that may be less than 1% (or 3 billion US dollars) this year. However, during the period from 2014 to 2016, the global drug year will rebound to $18 billion to $20 billion.

The global health system is committed to addressing the growing demand for macroeconomic pressures and medical penetration and effectiveness. Therefore, in the next five years, medicines will play a more important role in medical services. Murray Aitken, executive dean of the IMS Institute, said, “The 2016 global pharmaceutical spending will exceed trillion U.S. dollars, which will release a signal of a rebound in the market recovery, but it also reflects the enormous challenges faced by the global healthcare spending.”

The two markets are unevenly hot and cold. However, at the same time as the rebound, the global pharmaceutical consumption market still presents the situation of “half of seawater and half of flame”. The report pointed out that from 2011 to 2016, the growth of drug consumption in developed countries will slow down, while the expenditure on drug consumption in emerging markets will double.

Data shows that during the five years from 2011 to 2016, the total drug consumption in developed countries will increase by 60 billion U.S. dollars to 70 billion U.S. dollars, while in the previous five years from 2006 to 2011, the total value of pharmaceutical consumption in developed countries will increase by 104 billion U.S. dollars. Although the number of patent expired drugs is the largest in history, but with the advent of new drugs and the introduction of the 2014 ACA Act, the popularity of drugs in patients has greatly increased, the United States in the next five years, Drug consumption expenditure will still increase by 35 billion U.S. dollars to 45 billion U.S. dollars, maintaining an average annual growth rate of 1% to 4%; in Europe, due to the implementation of large-scale fiscal austerity plans and medical cost control measures, the growth rate of drug consumption It will remain in the range of -1% to 2%; while Japan is expected to implement a two-year price reduction policy in 2012, 2014 and 2016, and its pharmaceutical market is expected to be 1% to 4% by 2016 Growth is slightly lower than the past 5 years.

The annual pharmaceutical expenditure in the emerging pharmaceutical market is expected to increase from $194 billion last year to $345 billion to $375 billion in 2016 (or per capita spending of $91). The report believes that this growth trend has benefited from a series of measures such as the increase in people’s income, the continued decline in the cost of medicines, and the increase in treatment penetration rates adopted by the government. Generic drugs and other products (including over-the-counter drugs, diagnostic products and non-therapeutic products) will contribute about 83% of the growth.

The growth of brand drugs will slow down until 2016, and brand drugs will usher in an unprecedented low growth. The report predicts that the branded drug market will increase from 596 billion U.S. dollars in 2011 to 615 billion U.S. dollars to 645 billion U.S. dollars, and its annual growth rate will drop to 0 to 3%. In mature markets, the growth of branded drugs will be only US$10 billion within five years due to the expiration of product patents, the control of payment parties' costs, and the public's rational consumption of newly-listed drugs. However, small molecule generic drugs and biopharmaceuticals will usher in a larger market space.

The report pointed out that it is expected that the cost of generic generic drugs will increase from 242 billion U.S. dollars to 400 billion U.S. dollars to 430 billion U.S. dollars from 2011 to 2016. The main driving factors are the expansion of the emerging pharmaceutical market and the gradual shift of the use of generic drugs from developed countries. Since patent expiration has a very limited effect on the cost-saving of national health systems, European countries' policies encourage patients to use more generic drugs and reduce medical expenses for these products.

It is expected that the global listing of new molecular entities (NMEs) will rebound in the next five years. Between now and 2016, 32 to 37 NMEs will be brought to market each year. From 2011 to 2016, it is estimated that 160 to 185 NMEs will be listed, and 142 NMEs will be launched from 2007 to 2011. Innovative treatments that can prolong patient life or improve the quality of life of patients will be used to treat Alzheimer's disease, autoimmune diseases, diabetes, and many cancers and rare diseases. Treatment of key global diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis and neglected diseases is expected to improve, but the treatment gap will still exist.

While important clinical research continues to make progress, it is expected that by 2016, biopharmaceutical products will account for about 17% of total global drug expenditures. In the next five years, 7 of the top 10 drugs with the highest global expenses are biopharmaceutical products. Since biopharmaceutical products are still protected by patents or market exclusivity in many countries, the use of biosimilars as a low-cost alternative to original biopharmaceutical products is still limited.